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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

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“The new hub will display probability data from Polymarket for key economic, government, & market outcomes,” said Polymarket in a post on X last November. “Each probability view will be paired with related news, quotes, & analysis from Yahoo Finance + its partners. By combining trusted data with in-depth analysis, the hub will empower investors to make smarter, more strategic prediction market investments.”

Yahoo—which is 90% owned by private equity giant Apollo Global Management, the firm that acquired operating control of The Venetian in Las Vegas—did not elaborate on why the Polymarket integration ended.

Yahoo Finance is one of the most visited financial news websites in the world, implying it’s a blow to Polymarket that its prediction market hub was pulled, but the operator has other prominent financial media deals.

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Its share price decline began after reaching an all-time high in September 2021. Over the course of five years it has slipped 73% to 530p.

It has been a challenging few years for Entain, having cycled through four CEOs in short succession. In November 2023 Entain agreed to pay a financial penalty totalling £585 million, plus a £20 million charitable donation and £10 million in Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) and HMRC costs. This related to a bribery case initiated by the CPS into the company’s historic operations in Turkey.

Troubles continued as it faced declining growth within its digital business. Reports of failed integrations amid a frenzy of acquisitions further dampened Entain’s reputation and the operator subsequently committed to a major turnaround effort to cut costs and return its digital business to growth.