20 Burning Dice

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The conclusion of the Yahoo Finance deal comes as there is more talk about the use of prediction market data in journalism. Operators such as Polymarket and rival Kalshi have touted their markets as a way to get real-time information on how likely future events are to occur. 

However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

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The report assesses black market activity across 28 European jurisdictions, including the UK, Netherlands and Germany. According to estimates across a mature black market ecosystem, 25 operators account for approximately 64% of relevant black market traffic.

Thanks to the “rapid growth of crypto currencies” and globally recognisable branding through marketing and sponsorships, this handful of operators are generating the majority of illegal gambling traffic across Europe.

The report also cites brands targeting a specifically banned vertical or product within a jurisdiction as driving black market activity. While markets across Europe have many examples, one such flagged in the report is that iGaming remains illegal for licensed operators in France.

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These comments echo a similar sentiment emphasised at the country’s Directorate of Communications panel event on illegal betting and addiction on 10 September. Deputy Minister of Interior Ali Çelik suggested that curbing addiction would lead to a decrease in illegal betting activity. 

Çelik said: “If we can eliminate this sector, we will also minimise the funds flowing into the hands of the next criminal organisation.”  

The president of the Turkish Green Crescent Society, Associate Professor Mehmet Dinç, expanded on this point, highlighting the relationship between supply and demand in the fight against illegal betting.