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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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The Bills play next Sunday (Sept. 27) at home against the 0-2 Los Angeles Chargers, with a 1 p.m. EDT kickoff.
We’ve already gotten money on the Bills against the Chargers, and of course the fact the Chargers lost to the Raiders yesterday (Sept. 20) 26-14 doesn’t help matters for people wanting to bet against the Bills,” Scucci explained. “So that’s all the more reason why we are seeing the money on the Bills. They’re going to be betting against the Dolphins every week, too.”
Like other sportsbooks in Las Vegas, Boyd Gaming is taking on significant liability on the Las Vegas Raiders, coming off their big win in Los Angeles to go 2-0 on the season.
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Many top gaming stocks have underperformed relative to the broader market in recent years, and most of the M&A activity has been facilitated by private equity and other institutions that can more readily capitalise on depressed valuations. There had been hope that rates would start to fall and help alleviate those pressures.
“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”
According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.
