Sic Bo: Sicbo Fortune

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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That is because trading on prediction markets is illegal down under, according to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, the nation’s regulator on financial services. Last month, in perhaps the ASIC’s strongest warnings yet against the asset class, the commission reiterated that prediction markets are not licensed as financial markets to operate in Australia. Through the guidance, the regulator urged consumers to exercise caution before partaking in certain investments on offshore platforms which have not obtained licensing nationwide.

The advisory could be music to the ears of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, whose league has pushed a federal derivatives regulator in the US to enact more rigorous standards to help protect the integrity of professional sports. Ahead of the matchup, Goodell spoke with CNBC from Melbourne.

“We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” he said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.”

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Canada-based Score Media & Gaming may have just scored a game-winning touchdown. In an announcement made after markets closed yesterday, the company behind theScore and Score Bet sports gambling brands has launched an initial public offering (IPO) as it goes live on the Nasdaq Global Select Market (NGSM). The move follows on the heels of Canada’s preliminary approval of single-event sports wagers, which is expected to greatly benefit Score Media, and could quickly lead to the company’s stock price skyrocketing. 

Score Media announced that it is selling five million shares, fewer than previously expected. The company had changed gears with its public launch, announcing last week a reverse split that would cut out some of the available shares while increasing the per-share price. It has already found support, with underwriters Canaccord Genuity, Credit Suisse, Macquarie Capital and Morgan Stanley able to purchase another 15% on top of the initial five million shares. Should they exercise that option, there would be a total of 5.75 million shares available. The underwriters have 30 days to make up their minds, which will give it time to see how the market reacts. 

Several gaming entities have jumped into public trading recently, most notably, DraftKings. It saw a huge response when it launched its IPO last year, and Score Media hopes it can see a similar response. With operations in Canada, Colorado, Indiana and New Jersey, heavy interest is not out of the question, and the company is ready to capture a larger piece of the market. It added in its announcement, “[Score Media] currently expects that the net proceeds of the offering will be used to fund working capital and other general corporate purposes, including the continued growth and expansion of theScore Bet’s operations in the United States and Canada by supporting the multi-jurisdiction deployment and operation of theScore Bet and user acquisition and retention in jurisdictions where theScore is, or will be, operating.”